Golden State Scorecard: Can California stop the bleeding?

Feb 27, 2024

Over the last few years, there has been one trend, albeit an ugly one for the state of California: more and more players are leaving the state and the Pac-12 conference footprint.

California has long been considered one of the Big Three with Texas and Florida.

But unlike those two states, which have multiple Power 5 conferences represented in their own state, the Pac-12 is the only Power 5 conference represented in the Golden State.

And with more and more players leaving the region, can the Pac-12 stem the tide?

The pinnacle was in 2020, when half of the state’s 10 best players headed outside of the Pac-12. Four more left the state for another Pac-12 program and only one player, receiver Gary Bryant, chose to stay in-state.

In other words, California had become a sieve.

From that 2020 class were the top three quarterbacks in the country, who left the West for the SEC, ACC and Big Ten, respectively. In fact, they signed with three of the four schools who have won a national championship in the College Football Playoff era.

That stat brings us back to why it’s so important to recruit California: Quarterbacks.

It’s no secret the Golden State historically has produced the best, deepest crop of arms; there have been 12 Super Bowl titles won by starting quarterbacks from California, including the record of six by Bay Area native Tom Brady.

In addition, there have been seven more quarterbacks from the Golden State who didn’t win the big one but at least started for the runner-up.

This year, the lone first round pick in the NFL Draft from the Golden State was Bakersfield (Calif.) Liberty product Jordan Love, whom the Green Bay Packers selected out of Utah State.

But it’s not just quarterbacks the state is known for. There are Outland Trophy-winning linemen from the Golden State, Heisman Trophy running backs, Biletnikoff-snatching receivers, John Mackey Award tight ends, Butkus-level linebackers and defensive backs who have brought home the Jim Thorpe Award.

The 247Sports rankings era dates to the 2010 recruiting cycle. With that frame of reference, this analysis of the Golden State Scorecard focuses on recruiting classes dating to the 2010 cycle. That gives us 11 completed recruiting classes of data, plus the in-progress 2021 cycle, for context.

FORECASTING THE FUTURE

Is it going to get better for the Pac-12 or at least for the Golden State schools?

The 2021 class looked like it was trending towards more players leaving; the top player in the state had committed to a school east of the Mississippi, but that player, Corona (Calif.) Centennial defensive end Korey Foreman, decommitted from Clemson and USC is right back in there for him.

Of course, LSU, Alabama, Oregon and Georgia as well as Clemson are still pushing for Foreman and a Crystal Ball was recently put in for Georgia, so we could be returning back to square one.

Even with Foreman's decommitment, Clemson, for the third straight year, has a player from California coming. Bellflower (Calif.) St. John Bosco receiver Beaux Collins, the No. 15 player in the state, remains solid to the Tigers, where his quarterback from Bosco, D.J. Uiagalelei, will be a freshman this fall.

And while Georgia has the momentum with the No. 1 player in Foreman, they already have secured a commitment from the No. 3 prospect in the state, Napa (Calif.) tight end Brock Bowers, who committed earlier this month to the Bulldogs.

In addition, LSU has a verbal from the No. 4 player in the state, Santa Ana (Calif.) Mater Dei linebacker Raesjon Davis while Notre Dame has a pledge from the No. 7 player in the state, La Mesa (Calif.) Helix quarterback Tyler Buchner and Michigan has a commitment from the No. 8 player in the state, Xavier Worthy, the Top247 receiver from Fresno (Calif.) Central.

USC has two players in the top 10 committed in quarterback Miller Moss (at. No. 9) out of Santa Ana (Calif.) Mater Dei and Elk Grove (Calif.) Monterey Trail athlete Prophet Brown (at No. 10), though they also have three more in the top 25, Pasadena (Calif.) Muir safety Calen Bullock (No. 12) , Simi Valley (Calif.) Grace Brethren defensive tackle Jay Toia (No. 14), and Downey (Calif.) Warren safety Xamarion Gordon (No. 24).

So the biggest question is ... can Clay Helton, David Shaw and Chip Kelly get things back to where they used to be?

Wilcox is trying at Cal, with a commitment from four players in the Top 21, most notably Richmond (Calif.) Kennedy tight end Jermaine Terry (at No. 13) while also having in-state pledges like Mission Viejo (Calif.) receiver Mavin Anderson at No. 17, Brentwood (Calif.) Liberty defensive end Akili Calhoun at No. 19 and Santa Margarita (Calif.) defensive end Derek Wilkins at No. 21.

Helton has five players in the top-25, but Stanford and UCLA could bring their recruiting levels back up- the Bruins' highest rated player in the composite is Gardena (Calif.) Serra defensive back Devin Kirkwood at No. 31 while Stanford's is at No. 343, Laguna Hills (Calif.) safety Mitch Leigber.

Oh, and they also have to address three schools that have been stellar in California the last few classes: Oregon under Mario Cristobal, Washington, now under Jimmy Lake, and Arizona State under Herm Edwards.

All three of the schools have made no bones about plans to set up shop in California, and with those three schools recruiting well in both Southern and Northern California, they’re casting a wide net.

Oregon, in fact, has the No. 2 player in the state, in the fold as a commit- Menlo Park (Calif.) Menlo-Atherton receiver Troy Franklin, the No. 2 prospect in California and the top prospect in Northern California this year.

While 2021 is already starting to show the cracks of the in-state success looking more and more like the fault lines through the Golden State, there could be some more hope on the way- both UCLA and USC are on the very, very short lists of No. 9 Ethan Calvert, the No. 1 inside linebacker in the state.

So all eyes will be on Los Angeles (Calif.) Loyola cornerback Ceyair Wright, who is ranked No. 6, the owner of 35 offers, who looks like he'll be in a deep battle with Stanford and USC in-state plus Notre Dame, Oregon and Arizona State.

2020: GO EAST, YOUNG MAN

The 2020 class was good for the rest of the country. Five of the top 10 players in California left the Pacific Time Zone, with Alabama landing the No. 1 player in the country, Santa Ana (Calif.) Mater Dei quarterback Bryce Young, Clemson the No. 3 player in the state, Bellflower (Calif.) St. John Bosco quarterback D.J. Uiagalelei, Ohio State inking Rancho Cucamonga (Calif.) quarterback CJ Stroud, the No. 4 player in the state and Georgia signing a pair from the state, Clovis (Calif.) Buchanan running back Kendall Milton (No. 7) and Calabasas (Calif.) receiver Jermaine Burton (No. 9).

In the Pac-12, Washington tied Georgia for most players from the Golden State, with the No. 8 player, receiver Jalen McMillan and No. 10 player, offensive lineman Myles Murao. Oregon (with No. 2 player Justin Flowe) and Utah (No. 6 player Clark Phillips), also plucked standouts from the state.

USC was the only in-state school to land a player from their home base, No. 5 player Gary Bryant out of Corona (Calif.) Centennial.

The year before, USC ended up with four of the top 10 players in the state, Bru McCoy (finally settling on USC after signing with them, transferring to Texas then returning to USC), Chris Steele (Florida signed him then he transferred to USC) Kyle Ford and Drake Jackson, while Oregon inked two (Kayvon Thibodeaux and Mykael Wright) and Arizona State with one (Jayden Daniels).

But three players left the region: Henry To'o To'o (Tennessee), Zach Charbonnet (Michigan) and Joe Ngata (Clemson), the first sign of the door starting to fly open.

A RELATIVELY NEW TREND

You don’t have to go back too long to when the Pac-12 was keeping the majority of its players, and the top players in California were staying in-state.

The 2018 class saw six of the top 10 players in the state sign with USC, including the top four in California, while Stanford and Washington each signed a player. The two who left, Jaiden Woodbey (Florida State) and Matt Corral (Ole Miss) have both seen significant times at their respective schools and neither ended up at the school they were originally committed; Woodbey was initially an Ohio State commit while Corral was a USC pledge.

Counting down from 2018 to 2010, every class had at least half of the top-10 players stay in-state. Though there were always, naturally, some faraway poachers who traded success during the decade — Alabama, Ohio State, Notre Dame and Oklahoma, while Clemson is in the midst of a nice run.

Staying within the conference, Oregon and Washington, who have combined to win four of the last six Pac-12 titles, were strongest during that period.

WHY WE ARE AT THIS POINT

USC has been the prominent program in the state since the beginning of the 247Sports rankings (2010). And that included a period where the Trojans were on probation.

But since they inked the 2018 class, which included six of the top eight players, they’ve gone 13-12, haven’t won their division, missed a bowl and have seen Clay Helton survive the firing line twice.

It’s not a coincidence that since they’ve struggled the last two years on the field, the perception of the Golden State players signing with has also been altered.

But it’s not all USC’s fault.

UCLA, which had some stellar classes under Jim Mora, hasn’t had a winning record since 2015, and their recruiting has suffered.

And Stanford, which won three Pac-12 titles in a four-year span and won the Pac-12 North four times in six years, is coming off its worst season since Jim Harbaugh’s first season (2007) on the Farm. Plus, they’ve always recruited more nationally.

Cal is seeing a renaissance of sorts under Justin Wilcox, with in-state recruiting improving to its best since Jeff Tedford had it cooking in Berkeley. But they also had the Sonny Dykes years, where they were recruiting outside the Pac-12 footprint more than in it.